Monday, November 4, 2013

2013 Non-Conference Schedules: San Diego Toreros


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All times Pacific.

I like what Bill Grier and his staff have done with this year's schedule. It's very well rounded. First off, over half of the Toreros' games will be played at Jenny Craig Pavilion. Of those seven, two are guaranteed to be blowout victories (two non-D-I teams). The team has a few early season tests on the slate as well. Playing at New Mexico, while almost certainly a loss, will prepare the Toreros for the hostile environments in Provo and Spokane. San Diego State, in Jenny Craig, will provide fans with a great game and (hopefully) a great atmosphere. The atmosphere is up to you, USD fans. Finally, the Gulf Coast Showcase could provide USD with either a few tough games or an easy path to an pretty early-season record, depending on how the bracket shakes out.

My only qualm is the two games against non-D-I teams. Part of the WCC's rationale for adding Pacific was that two additional conference games would make it easier for WCC teams to schedule a non-conference slate of entirely D-I teams. Either San Diego couldn't do that, which I doubt considering the surplus of low quality D-I teams in the state of California. Or, the Toreros's staff wanted to play two games that would be nearly guaranteed victories. All-in-all though, this is a quality schedule for where the Toreros are at this season.

1. November 8th at 7:00 PM in San Diego
South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Summit League
Last Season: 25-10 (13-3), T-1st place Summit. 13 seed NCAA Tournament, lost in Round of 64 to Michigan.



The Jackrabbits made back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances thanks in large part to the stellar point guard play of Nate Wolters. Wolters was one of the best point guards in all of college hoops the past two years. He was South Dakota State basketball. 30.3% of the Jackrabbits possessions went through Wolters and 34.3% of his teammates' buckets came off his assists. Wolters' departure hurts South Dakota much in the way Matthew Dellavedova's departure hurts Saint Mary's, except that the Gaels are a far more solid program than the Jackrabbits.

Last season they ran a very efficient offense, but you can't expect that to continue. Per Ken Pom, without Wolters SDST has never ranked in the top-100 of offensive efficiency. Senior forward Jordan Dykstra is the team's leading returner with 12.3 points per game. Most of their returning players who logged regular minutes posted offensive ratings over 100.0, and many over 110.0. Once again, don't expect that, as defenses won't have to constantly focus on Wolters (leaving these other players relatively unguarded and open).

2. November 9th at 6:00 PM in San Diego
Grand Canyon 'Lopes, Western Athletic Conference
Last Season: 23-8 (14-4), T-2nd place PacWest Conference (Division II).

Grand Canyon Univiersity is entering its first year as a Division I program. Division I is also entering a first year, the first year with a for-profit school in its ranks. Grand Canyon has seen nothing but controversy since announcing it would join the WAC. The Pac-12 has been very vocal about its displeasure with for-profit schools in D-I. GCU's other controversy stems from the firing of head coach Russ Pennell after the end of last season. Pennell was replaced former Phoenix Suns player Dan Majerle. The move looks like an attempt to lure fans to the games because their coach is a minor Phoenix celebrity. The thing is, Pennell is a good and established coach (he's now the head man for the Phoenix Mercury of the WNBA). I'll be honest, I'm not a fan of Grand Canyon, I don't think for-profit schools belong in the D-I ranks and I hope they flounder in the D-I cellar forever.

Anyways, there isn't much to be known about the 'Lopes as a team. They ran up the best overall record in the PacWest last year but were blown out by 32 points the only time they faced a D-I opponent (Utah State). Talent wise Killian Larson will be the top returner, he could average a double-double. They add Demetrius Walker, who was dismissed from New Mexico last February, and is eligible immediately because he has already earned his degree. Walker averaged  5 points in 15.4 minutes per game.

3. November 14th at 4:00 PM in Baltimore, MD
Morgan State Bears, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Last Season: 17-15 (10-6), 5th place MEAC.
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at LMU and at San Diego.

In basketball height is typically beneficial. In college basketball, what is beneficial typically ends up at the schools with the most money. Morgan State doesn't care, and it shows when you look (up) at their roster. The Bears lose 6' 8" starting forward Dewayne Jackson, but they return a roster where all but two guys stand at least 6' 2". Four of five starters return this season making the Bears one of the nation's more experienced teams. All five expected starters are upperclassmen.

These guys are very good at blocking shots. They're also very good at grabbing offensive rebounds, but that's the only thing they're good at on the offensive side of the ball. With Jito Kok defending the rim for San Diego, and the array of rim defenders for the Bears, expect a block party in this one.

4. November 16th at 4:00 PM in Highland Heights, KY
Northern Kentucky Norse, Atlantic Sun Conference.
Last Season: 11-16 (9-9), T-4th place A-Sun.
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at San Diego and at San Francisco.

Typically a team enters Division 1 and has an awful first year before improving, albeit slowly. Northern Kentucky had a pretty good first year in D-I, albeit bolstered by nine wins in the very weak Atlantic Sun. Unfortunately for the Norse, they won't be allowed to miss the obligatory awful year just because their first was decent. Last year's Norse had three seniors in the starting line up to help smooth the transition. This year those three are gone. Eshuante Jones was the catalyst last season, and the only player with an offensive rating over 100.0, and main shooter. He took 28.5% of the shots when he was on the floor, finding someone capable to replace that production is going to be nearly impossible.

The only real candidates are junior forward Jalen Billups and senior wing Chad Jackson. Billups actually took a higher percentage of shots than Jones. Since he played just seven games last season his ability to produce, consistently, at that level is brought into question.

5. November 21st at 7:00 PM in San Diego
San Diego Christian Hawks, Golden State Athletic Conference (NAIA)
Last Season: 7-17 (0-9 vs. D-I, not included in official 7-17 record)

Games against non-D-I opponents are normally boring, meaningless and the result of an inability to schedule a full slate of D-I teams. This game defies the norm for two reasons. First of all, and most obviously, these two teams are crosstown rivals. Secondly, and most important, this game is being billed as "The 1st Inaugural ALS Find A Cure Game".

6. November 25th at 11:30 AM in Estero, FL
University of Illinois-Chicago Flames, Horizon League
Last Season: 18-16 (7-9), T-5th place Horizon. Lost in second round of CIT.

The Flames started the season hot and scorched their non-conference foes. By December 15th they were off to a 9-1 start with wins over Colorado State, Iona and Northwestern with their only loss coming against New Mexico. The non-conference slate ended with three straight losses. From there, the Flames were unable to return to their early-season form. Despite a sub-.500 record in the unimpressive Horizon League, UIC earned a spot in the postseason (no doubt because of the accomplishments in November and early December). The late-season woes of last year look to spill over into this season. All three leading scorers from last season are gone.

7. November 26th at TBD in Estero, FL
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Conference USA
Last Season: 27-7 (16-2), T-1st place Western Athletic Conference. Lost in second round of NIT.
OR
UNC Greensboro Spartans, Southern Conference
Last Season: 9-22 (6-12), 10th place SoCon.

8. November 27th at TBD in Estero, FL
Wagner Seahawks, Northeast Conference
Last Season: 19-12 (12-6), T-2nd place NEC.
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at Santa Clara.
OR
Stetson Hatters, Atlantic Sun Conference
Last Season: 15-16 (11-7), 3rd place A-Sun.
OR
Southern Illinois Salukis, Missouri Valley Conference
Last Season: 14-17 (6-12), 10th place MVC.
OR
St. Bonaventure Bonnies, Atlantic 10 Conference
Last Season: 14-15 (7-9), T-11th place A10.

9. November 30th at 12:00 PM in Albuquerque, NM
New Mexico Lobos, Mountain West Conference. 3 seed NCAA Tournament, lost in Round of 64 to Harvard.
Last Season: 29-6 (13-3), 1st place MWC.
Last Season vs. WCC: won at home against Portland.

In the Mountain West, upstart San Diego State and long standing brand UNLV get a lot of buzz. New Mexico has spent the past few seasons making sure the buzz those two schools get is more hype than deserved. MWC Champions three of the past four seasons, the Lobos are finally getting the preseason respect they deserve. They're 23rd in the preseason AP poll and close to a consensus pick to win the MWC once again this year.

Head coach Steve Alford is gone, to UCLA, as is wing Tony Snell, to the Chicago Bulls. Those are two big losses, but enough remains to keep the Lobos rolling. Craig Neal, a longtime assistant under Alford, is the new head coach. His freshman son, Cullen, had committed to play for Saint Mary's. But, when Craig Neal got the top job in Albuquerque, Randy Bennett granted the promising point guard a release so he could play for his dad. Cullen would have been a factor, immediately, at Saint Mary's. He likely won't at New Mexico. This is a senior laden, talented team that will be looking to erase memories of an early exit from the NCAA Tournament. The efficiency they play with on both ends of the floor should make forgetting about last March really easy. It should also make this game, especially since it will be played in The Pit, almost impossible for the Toreros to win.

10. December 5th at 8:00 PM in San Diego
San Diego State Aztecs, Mountain West Conference
Last Season: 23-11 (9-7), T-4th place MWC.
Last Season vs. WCC: won at home vs. San Diego and won vs. San Francisco.

Steve Fisher arrived in San Diego in 1999, just as the Aztecs left the WAC and joined the new Mountain West. He's taken a program that was absolute garbage for nearly its entire existence and turned it into a West Coast power. The past four seasons have seen the Aztecs play their way into the NCAA Tournament. This could well be the year that streak breaks.

Three starters from last season will not be returning this year. Two of those three were the Aztecs' two leading scorers, two of those three were the Aztecs' two leading rebounders and two of those three were the Aztecs' two leaders in offensive rating. And, each of those three players was top two in two of the aforementioned categories. Basically, the Aztecs lose their best players. However, they do return some key players, and bring in some key additions. Tulane transfer Josh Davis, who was targeted by Gonzaga, is eligible immediately and should help fill the rebounding void.

Unfortunately for "The Show" -- San Diego State's student section (which takes first place prize for most annoying on the internet) -- this will be a down year. Losing the players responsible for most of the 23 wins last year (by the way, the lowest total since 2008) and replacing them with less experience and less talent, that's not a good sign. San Diego State will still be a good team. Likely an NIT team at worst.

11. December 10th at 7:00 PM in San Diego
Pacifica Gladiators, United Stated Collegiate Athletic Association

Just look at this tidbit from the school's official website to get a sense of who these guys are.

College Varsity & Club Sports

Have eligibility?
Did Not get drafted by a College Team?
We can help you play your favorite sport!!

What sort of college doesn't use proper capitalization and punctuation? 

12. December 15th at 2:00 PM in San Diego
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos, Big West Conference
Last Season: 11-20 (7-11) 7th place Big West.
Last Season vs. WCC: won at home against San Diego, won at Santa Clara and 1-2 vs. Pacific.

The Gauchos have been, along with Pacific and Long Beach State, one of the Big West's marquee programs over the past few seasons. Last year they missed out on a postseason berth for the first time in three years. They were young and made the kind of mistakes that inexperienced teams make. With a year together under their belts, the Gauchos should be much improved in 2013-14. Last year's group turned the ball over on nearly a quarter of their offensive possessions. Don't expect a rate that high to happen again (though it might in this game, with a steal-happy Christopher Anderson playing defense).

The Gauchos return Big West Sixth Man of the Year, Kyle Boswell. Boswell is a sharpshooter from distance and sophomores Michael Bryson and Taran Brown are volume shooters from distance. While this team lives and dies by the three, they also have a force on the glass. Alan Williams led the Big West in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. Only three players in the nation were used in a higher percentage of possessions last year than Williams. 2013-14 will be a season of big gains for the Gauchos. Possibly enough to warrant a return to the postseason.

13. December 21st at 2:00 PM in San Diego
Southern Utah Thunderbirds, Big Sky Conference
Last Season: 11-20 (8-12), T-6th Big Sky.
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at Gonzaga and at home to San Diego.

Nick Robinson's second season in Cedar City is going to be a tough rebuild. Coach Robinson has to work five freshmen and a junior college transfer into the team. On top of that, the Thunderbirds will be without the players responsible for over two-thirds of their points scored last season. The players who return aren't very good at scoring. Leading returning scorer Jayson Cheesman, a 6' 11" center, shot 40.4% from the field despite not operating very far from the hoop. Only one returner, sophomore wing A.J. Hess, posted an offensive rating above 100 last season. The bright spots lie with the freshmen, especially McKay Anderson. The 6' 6" wing is already the best shooter on the team. 

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