Thursday, October 17, 2013

Non-Conference Schedule Analysis - Santa Clara

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All times Pacific.
I'm a big fan of the Broncos' non-conference schedule. For a team that wants to improve upon a CIT Championship last season, ideally by making a better tournament this year, this slate offers a number of chances to pick up good wins. It also provides fans in Santa Clara with seven home games, two of which are almost guaranteed to be blowout victories. Those two games are its only flaw; the Broncos failed to schedule enough D-I teams. No

1. November 8th at 7:00 PM at the Leavey Center
Bethesda Flames, National Christian College Athletic Association

The Broncos' first game of the real season is against a team that isn't in D-I, D-II, D-III or the NAIA so, they'll be 1-0.

2. November 12th at 8:00 PM at the Leavey Center
San Jose State Spartans, Mountain West Conference
Last Season: 9-20 (3-14), T-8th Western Athletic Conference.
Last Season vs. WCC: Loss at home to Santa Clara.

Remember when San Francisco lost nine players, six to transfer, in the offseason after their 20 win 2011-12 campaign? That transfer bug moved south this offseason and ravaged the Spartans. The Dons bounced back rather easily despite the losses, but don't expect the same in San Jose. The Spartans, who weren't a good team to begin with (perennially sub-.500), also have to deal with a new head coach and a much tougher conference.

The only good news for the Spartans is they return their two best players from last year, junior guard D.J. Brown and senior forward Chris Cunningham. The 6' 9", 240 lbs Cunningham was a legit double-double threat averaging 10.7 points and 9 rebounds per game. While Cunningham will do his thing down low, Brown should have it easy dealing with the Bronco backcourt that now lacks Kevin Foster and Raymond Cowels. However, aside from those two (who, once again, were the best players on an awful team and will, once again, be the best players on an awful team) the Spartans are seriously lacking in skill and experience. The only player with skill and experience on the team is the former Pepperdine Wave Jordan Baker, who transferred to SJSU this summer and is ineligible to play this season.

3. November 16th at 3:00 PM in Fullerton, CA
Cal State Fullerton Titans, Big West Conference
Last Season: 14-18 (6-12), 8th place Big West.
Last Season vs. WCC: 0-2 vs. Pacific.

Former Arizona State assistant Dedrique Taylor took over the head coaching position back in April and has some serious rebuilding to do. Last year's Titans were one of the nation's best offensive units. They outpace the national average by nearly ten points per game and averaged 1.06 points per possession. However, they finished below .500 in the far from strong Big West because they had one of the nation's worst defenses. Opponents scored at least one point on nearly 70% of their offensive possessions. The two sides of the ball should move closer together this season but that is not a positive.

The Titans lose the three players responsible for over 60% of their total points. Other than junior guard Alex Harris and his 10.5 ppg, no returning Titan player is much of a scorer or play maker. Michael Williams, a former Don who took part in the 2012 mass exodus, will play his senior season for the Titans after redshirting last season. Over six career games against the Broncos, Williams is averaging 8.1 points.

4. November 22nd at 6:00 PM in South Bend, IN
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Atlantic Coast Conference
Last Season: 25-10 (11-7), T-5th Big East.
Last Season vs. WCC: Won vs. BYU.

The Irish enter their first season in the ACC on pretty solid footing. Four of their five starters from last season will be back in South Bend and three of those are upperclassmen. Point guard Eric Atkins has a large cast of scorers around him, once again, who should make the Irish offense one of the nation's most efficient, once again. Chief among the weapons is Jerian Grant, 6' 5"/202lbs, who led the team in scoring last season with 13.4 points per game. Grant is a well rounded player who can is equally effective when he's bringing the ball up the court and creating his own shot, spotting up and shooting or slashing to the basket. Pat Connaughton, also 6' 5", will see his role in the offense increase in his junior season. Connaughton is the best shooter of the bunch.

The key loss for the Irish is on the interior. Jack Cooley held down the paint for the Irish for the past few years. He was second on the team in points, with 13 per game, but the Irish have the ability to get those points elsewhere. His absence will be most felt on the glass where he posted an offensive rebound percentage of 17.4 (3rd best nationally). Yannick Atanga is a very capable rebounder so for the Broncos to win this game he will need to crash the boards like a man possessed. If the Irish can win the glass, their offense will no doubt out-gun the Broncos.

5. November 29th at 8:00 PM at the Leavey Center
North Dakota State Bison, Summit League
Last Season: 24-10 (12-4), 3rd place Summit.
Last Season vs. WCC: 0-2 vs. LMU, lost at Portland and Santa Clara.

Mid-way through last season the Bison looked like they would roll through the Summit league. But when Taylor Braun went down with injury, the Bison sputtered to the finish. The loss of his 15.4 points per game proved too much to overcome (even in the Summit league). Their 7-0 start to league play was followed by a 5-4 stretch run. Now a senior, Braun is back and healthy. He is the key to the success of this team on a nightly and seasonal basis, but he's not wholly responsible. Limiting Braun's impact on the game will only get you half way to beating the Bison.

The senior frontcourt duo of Marshall Bjorklund and TrayVonn Wright kept the Bison from an outright collapse. The two combined for 11.9 rebounds per game (6.0 and 5.9 respectively). With a two-headed monster on the glass the Bison managed to post the fifth best OREB% defense in the nation last season. Limiting Braun AND pulling down offensive rebounds are the keys to success against this team. However, that's hard to do. Aside from the three senior starters I mentioned, the two other starters return as well. With these guys all back it's not too early to say that the Bison have a shot at being this year's NCAA Tournament Cinderella story.

6. November 30th at TBA at the Leavey Center
Rice Owls, Conference USA
Last Season: 5-26 (1-15), 12th place C-USA.
OR
Rider Broncs, Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Last Season: 19-15 (12-6), T-2nd place MAAC.

7. December 5th at 7:00 PM in Bakersfield, CA
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners, Western Athletic Conference
Last Season: 14-16, Independent.
Last Season vs. WCC: 0-2 vs. LMU, lost at Portland and Santa Clara.

The Roadrunners are entering their seventh season in D-I. During their first six years, they've played some pretty tough schedules. In part because of that, they've only managed one season with a winning record. Things should continue along that path once again. The team that nearly made it to .500 last year is not the team we'll see this year. Three starters are departing including their entire starting front court. The Roadrunners were a short team last year and with their starting bigs departing, they're even shorter this year. Junior guard Brandon Barnes, and his 12.1 ppg, is the only talent on the roster. It's not all bad news in Bakersfield... The Roadrunners, and their McDonald's endorsed blue court, have a conference to call home now.

8. December 7th at 7:00 PM in San Luis Obispo, CA
Cal Poly Mustangs, Big West Conference
Last Season: 18-14 (12-6), 3rd place Big West. Lost in CIT opening round.
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at Saint Mary's and Santa Clara, won at home against LMU and went 1-2 vs. Pacific.

The Mustangs had one of their most successful campaigns ever last season. Joe Callero's four seasons in San Luis Obispo have all seen improvement. Two starters depart, both seniors, but only Dylan Royer (and his 10.1 ppg) will need to be replaced. Coach Callero's recruiting classes are hitting their upperclassman years as well as their stride. This team is dominant on the offensive side of the ball. They rarely commit turnovers and they almost never have the ball stolen. Their offensive steal rate of 6.6 was the best in the nation last season.
Santa Clara's defense was stout, but not exceptional, last season. Against Cal Poly that won't cut it. If the Broncos want to win this game they'll need to get into a shootout. The Mustangs, despite the running horse in the logo, don't like to get up and down the court fast -- only two teams played at a slower adjusted tempo last season.

9. December 14th at 7:00 PM at the Leavey Center
La Sierra Golden Eagles, California Pacific Conference (NAIA)
Last Season: 5-24; no games against D-I opponents.

Another easy win that will pad the record and boost confidence but not help come selection Sunday.

10. December 16th at 7:00 PM at the Leavey Center
Radford Highlanders, Big South Conference
Last Season: 13-19 (7-9), T-7th place Big South

A school that you never hear about, that had a bad record last season, from a conference you never hear about. Sounds like an easy win right? Well, Radford is a team that will frustrate opposing fans this season. Head coach Mike Jones is back for his third season with the Highlanders. What he learned across the state at VCU, where he was an assistant to Shaka Smart, is already helping his teams in Radford. It's helping them frustrate opponents by playing with a defense similar to VCU's vaunted "Havoc". Radford's defensive efficiency has jumped from 107.1 in the last season without Jones to 102.9 last season.

So they're a good defensive team that looks to keep improving but they're not yet a good offensive team. In fact they're pretty awful on offense, the 26th worst according Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. Just as they look to improve upon their defense, they look to improve offensively as well (and not just because they can't really get any worse). Freshmen and sophomores made up the entire starting line-up last season. Javonte Green (103.6) and Ya Ya Anderson (101.4), both starters, were the only players to post offensive ratings above 100.0 (all five starters for Santa Clara posted ORtgs over 100.0 last season).

The Broncos should win this game if Evan Roquemore can handle the Highlanders' pressure and deliver the ball to his bigs. No Highlander who played over 40% of available minutes last season stands over 6' 5" tall... mismatch.

11. December 18th at 8:00 PM at the Leavey Center
Sacred Heart Pioneers, Northeast Conference
Last Season: 9-20 (7-11), 9th place NEC.

After 35 seasons, head coach Dave Bike will no longer be on the sideline. Bike, who retired in May, led the team from D-II to D-I. He's been replaced by assistant Anthony Latina. Shane Gibson is the guy who has yet to be replaced. Gibson scored over 2,000 points in his career with the Pioneers, partially because he was taking over a third of the team's shots last season. Now, part of the reason why he was taking a higher percentage of shots than all but six other players, in the nation, is that the Pioneers lost a lot of players to injury.

Chris Evans missed all of last season due to an offseason meniscus surgery.  Fellow redshirt junior Evan Kelly played in only two early-season games. Both were expected to contribute immediately for the Pioneers. They're both back this season, along with the reserves who stepped up to fill their shoes. Will that be enough to make up for the loss of Gibson? Probably not, but this team should be a bit better than last year.

12. December 22nd at 7:30 PM at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas
UNLV Runnin' Rebels, Mountain West Conference
Last Season: 25-10 (10-6), 3rd place MWC.
Last Season vs. WCC: won at Portland.

The Rebels lose five guys who played at least 40% of the available minutes and six guys who started at least one game. They lose the #1 pick in the NBA Draft, a transfer to Oregon, a transfer to USC and three seniors to graduation. This could be a down year for the Rebels. Or not, considering there are two McDonald's All-Americans on this team. Then again, it could be a down year, considering this is a patchwork team split almost equally between guys who transferred to the program and guys who committed to the program out of high school. Needless to say, the talent is there but the chemistry isn't.

What we do know for sure about the team is that they will get up the floor quickly on offense and lock you down on defense. The "runnin'" part of the of the name has become far more appropriate since Dave Rice took over two seasons ago. Rice has also been tightening up the defense, with a penchant for blocks, since his return to the UNLV sidelines. Unlike the Radford team that the Broncos face earlier in the Las Vegas Classic, UNLV is not a team that will let you exploit them in the paint. A hot shooting night, and hope that the random-assortment-Rebels have yet to jell, are the keys to a Broncos victory in this one.

13. December 23rd at TBD at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas
Mississippi State Bulldogs, Southeastern Conference
Last Season: 10-23 (4-14), T-12th place SEC.
OR
South Florida Bulls, American Athletic Conference
Last Season: 12-19 (3-15), T-13th place Big East.

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